Gay Marriage Issue To Enter this Race?
That’s what we think given the NJ State Supreme Court’s decision yesterday. We would expect that Karl Rove and Co. will bring out those pre-2004 election ads en masse once again as it rallies the base. We look at the NJ Supreme Court ruling - which can be described as the Court ruling that marriage should be defined by the elected representatives of the people and not by judges as an important perhaps tide-turning issue. It puts the spotlight right back on legislatures. Now millions of Americans – especially in NJ where the two Senate candidates are in a dead-heat, will be asking a question heretofore not considered:

What does the candidate think about gay marriage?

Voters asking that question in the 2004 election hurt the Democrats. Also, consider this poll which shows how important an issue this is for voters. Even if a candidate agrees with 99% of the issues of a particular voter BUT not on the issue of gay marriage, that voter will not vote for him. A critical issue which a majority of Americans think gay marriage should be illegal.

"If you agreed with a candidate for U.S. Congress on other issues, but not on the issue of same-sex marriage, could you still vote for him, or not?"

Could
50%

Could Not
41%

Not sure
9%

ABC News Poll. May 31-June 4, 2006

Opposition to gay marriage surged in 63% in February 2004, when opposition spiked following the Massachusetts Supreme Court decision upholding gay marriage was ruled and remained high throughout the 2004 election season. It stayed high with the conservative ads and Pres Bush pushing a constitutional amendment.
It has consistently stayed in the high 50% since then. 77% of Republicans favor a Constitutional ban, while Democrats are more divided on the issue, with 52% in favor and 44% opposed. So if you take the 41% that won’t vote for their candidate if he/she doesn’t agree with them on gay marriage, then one can see this being a trouble issue for Democrats.
We would expect the Republican Party to push this issue once again.
This comes with the trend since the immediate aftermath of the Foley-scandal has swung to the Republicans favor. Consider,
Republican base is returning to the fold, just as Karl Rove, the president’s close adviser and electoral strategist, predicted that they would. The state-by-state polls reflect GOP gains in Tennessee, New Jersey, Montana, Missouri, Virginia and in the national generic ballot tests. Since the Democrats must win two of the Senate seats in Tennessee, New Jersey, and Missouri and they are trailing in all three, there is a new possibility that the Republicans could pull out a midterm win. In John Zogby’s generic ballot polling, the Democratic margin has collapsed from +9 two weeks ago to only +3 today.
If the gay marriage issue helps the Republicans the way it did in 2004, than the Republicans may surprise.