Thursday, February 08, 2007

I offer these seemingly unrelated quotes from history that all will realize in the future are associated:

"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing- after they've tried everything else"- Winston Churchill

"America is like a boiler, once it gets moving watch out" - British diplomat in WWI

"You Americans, you are always asking why?" - French Colonel Duportail, on training American militia during the Revolutionary War

The world has existed for 6 billion years and nuclear weapons for 60 years and somehow - no that's not correct, we KNOW how, we have managed not to put humans in the same category as the other 99% of species that have ever lived -extinction.

We know how because of people who have risen to lead at a time of crisis, like Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan. Both led by their own conscience and neither by the whims of others. Both stood on principal and righteousness which not only showed everyone else the way, but let America's enemies - some are the same ones that exist today, know where America stood.
A line was drawn in the sand and America's enemies knew unequivocally not to cross it.

Carter's National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski was once awakened in the middle of a 1980 night with news that the Soviets had launched 2,200 ICBMs. Just before he was about to call President Carter-who would have all of 3 to 7 minutes to make a decision, luckily Brzezinski learned it was a false alarm. “Luck” and all of its derivatives had everything to do with humans not destroying the human race, depressing isn’t it?.

With only three minutes to make a decision, who would you want to be on the other end of some future National Security Adviser's middle-of-the-night phone call?
Clinton? McCain?
Obama? Giuliani?

Respectfully, I will answer for you by predicting an answer of 'E' -none of the above. As we either don't know, know too much or will soon know more than we wanted, about each (by summer of 2008, you'll know what I mean about this admittedly cryptic remark).

Many, including Michael Leeden argue that we have been at war with Iran for the last 30 years and just haven't been conscious about it. I believe that the for the last three decades Americans have subconsciously been asking why not try so many other options but these are sadly, running out and will ultimately lead to the right final decision. In which case, who shall lead us with the possibility of having to make an existentional decision in the middle of the night?

Mark this prediction:
Near-term, the risks and tension will only increase.
Israel, by the end of the year will not be led by Prime Minister Olmert but by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who has all but called for preemptive attacks on Iran. Unfortunately, by end of 2008, Iran will start the process to conduct an underground nuclear test.
Confrontation will seem closer than ever before.

Yaacov Ben Moshe and others may feel a sense of frustration with America's action or inaction as it were, but keep on educating "us" (humbly proffer for future American leaders) about your experiences, thoughts and advice. Then watch the American boiler move from asking questions to undertaking the right but very painful actions that will guarantee life, liberty and happiness for all.

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